The Country Music Association Awards show is a big deal in my house. I get take-out for dinner, put on my pajamas before the show starts, and give everyone strict instructions not to bother me until the next day (unless they're bleeding to death, that is).

Every year, we print out the list of nominees, and my husband and I make our picks. I choose my favorite, and who I suspect will win and then sit, with pen poised, to score my sheet.

This year, I am putting my guesses out there for all of you to see. So get a pen and play along.

ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR: Kenny Chesney, Alan Jackson, Toby Keith, Brad Paisley, Keith Urban

Who should win: Toby Keith. His latest CD, Honkytonk U, has

already produced three hits: As Good As I Once Was, the title cut, and Big Blue Note, which is climbing the charts now. Plus he had a sold-out tour with LeeAnn Womack, and it's the Big Dog's year. But it's Keith's devotion to the men and women in the military — he's among a handful of artists who consistently travel overseas to perform for the troops — that earned Keith my vote.

Who will win: Kenny Chesney. Because everyone feels sorry for the breakup of his nanosecond marriage to Renee Zellweger. Plus, his latest single rocketed to No. 3 this week after only seven weeks on the Billboard charts. He's been all over TV, plus the cover story on People magazine, and he's got a prime-time special coming up on Nov. 23 on ABC. It's true what they say: There's no such thing as bad publicity.

FEMALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR: Sara Evans, Alison Krauss, Martina McBride, Gretchen Wilson, Lee Ann Womack

Who should win: Sara Evans. It's her year. The sexy siren from Missouri had the most played song of 2004 with Suds in the Bucket, has made a strong showing with her new CD, Real Fine Place, and has been touring with both Brad Paisley and Alan Jackson this year. This peach is ripe for the picking.

Who will win: Evans. Her girl-next-door personality makes her one of country music's most likable stars.

MALE VOCALIST OF THE YEAR: Kenny Chesney, Alan Jackson, Brad Paisley, George Strait, Keith Urban

Who should win: Brad Paisley. I just love the West Virginia native's new CD, Time Well Wasted. His tour this summer was hotter than black vinyl upholstery in July.

Who will win: Alan Jackson. It's hard to beat country's Golden Boy and his album What I Am made a strong showing. But I just hate that Talkin' Song Repair Blues song. Maybe I should forgive Alan this small transgression, but it makes me wonder: If he sang Happy Birthday, would that hit No. 1 too?

HORIZON AWARD: Dierks Bentley, Big & Rich, Miranda Lambert, Julie Roberts, Sugarland

Who should win: Big & Rich. You can't pick up a CD lately that doesn't have John Rich as a songwriter. Without Rich, you might never have heard of the Redneck Woman, or Cowboy Troy. He also wrote Faith Hill's single Mississippi Girl. It's a joke to see Dierks Bentley on there. What Was I Thinking hit the charts in 2003. If you've been hanging around that long, are you really on the horizon? I think not.

Who will win: Big & Rich. But Sugarland might pull it out after the strong showing of their debut single Baby Girl.

SINGLE OF THE YEAR: Alcohol, Brad Paisley; As Good As I Once Was, Toby Keith; Baby Girl, Sugarland; Bless the Broken Road, Rascal Flatts; I May Hate Myself In The Morning, Lee Ann Womack

Which should win: Bless the Broken Road. A tough field, but Rascal Flatts' song was universally beloved. Plus, when you have to choose between a cheating song, a funny song and a love song, the love song should win.

Which will win: Alcohol. Never underestimate the power of Brad Paisley to swing things his way. The guy is the Midas of country music.

ALBUM OF THE YEAR: Be Here; Keith Urban; Feels Like Today, Rascal Flatts; Live Like You Were Dying, Tim McGraw; Somewhere Down In Texas, George Strait; There's More Where That Came From, Lee Ann Womack

Which should win: Feels Like Today. It's the top-selling album of 2005, and that matters in country awards.

Which will win: Live Like You Were Dying might squeak by. Country hottie Tim McGraw's pontificating CD is too preachy for my tastes, but fans loved it.

SONG OF THE YEAR (songwriter award): Alcohol, Brad Paisley; As Good As I Once Was, Toby Keith/Scotty Emerick; Bless The Broken Road, Marcus Hummon/Bobby Boyd/Jeff Hanna; I May Hate Myself In The Morning, Odie Blackmon;

Redneck Woman, Gretchen Wilson/John Rich; Whiskey Lullaby, Bill Anderson/Jon Randall

Who should win: Redneck Woman. Let's face it: Gretchen Wilson's anthem for women was explosive.

Who will win: Whiskey Lullaby. Nothing says country like a drunken double-suicide song. And I think it says something about the skill of the songwriters that they can take a subject like that and make something so beautiful out of it.

VOCAL GROUP OF THE YEAR: Alison Krauss + Union Station Featuring Jerry Douglas, Diamond Rio, Lonestar, Rascal Flatts, Sugarland

Who should win: Rascal Flatts. Gary, Joe Don and Jay have it hands-down. I would wager a week's salary on this one. It's a sure thing.

Who will win: See above.

VOCAL DUO OF THE YEAR: Big & Rich, Brooks & Dunn, Montgomery Gentry, Van Zant, The Warren Brothers

Who should win: Montgomery Gentry. These guys get better all the time, and they've got an aura about them that's unmatched. If Toby is the angry American, these guys are friendly Americans.

Who will win: Brooks & Dunn. One of this days, they're gonna get beat, but not this year. With a new album (Hillbilly Deluxe) and their Deuces Wild Tour with Big & Rich, the boys are as hot as they ever were. Plus, they're hosting the show.